Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

Abstract This article reviews the methods of safety management using Heinrich’s and Bird’s pyramids. The presence a causal relationship between pyramid levels, as result inconsistencies in activities an organization personnel, lead to incidents, incidents turn accidents. existence such makes it possible predict risk “top-level” events by reducing risks at middle lower levels. A mathematical description development process undesired aviation event is presented, which evaluate probability successful (or unsuccessful) completion transportation task. Also given analysis accident, based on example crash Lufthansa A-320 aircraft 14 September 1993 airport Warsaw (Poland) while landing adverse weather conditions.